The Impact of Climate on the 1242 Retreat of the Mongols from Europe

Abstract

While some authors have noted that the sudden withdrawal from Hungary by the Mongolian troops in 1242 coincides with climactic changes, the movements of the Mongolian army in Rus, Anatolia, and northern China demonstrate the ability to operate in severe weather conditions, both hotter and colder than those experienced in Hungary. Further, the famine that resulted from the occupation by the Mongols would have impacted the Hungarian forces far more than the Mongolians. The reason for this is that the change of arable land into pastureland provided further opportunities to move herds of animals into the area. Additionally, the death of Ögedei Khan coincides with the withdrawal, and the requirement to return to Mongolia for voting on secession demonstrates a more viable reason for the forces to leave the area. When coupled with the comparatively sparse wealth in the Hungarian plateaus compared to both Russia and Anatolia and later Baghdad, it seems more likely that the secession event, when coupled with the death of Ögedei Khan, led to the withdrawal.

Introduction

While significant research has been conducted into the influence of climate on the Mongol invasion during 1241, it is necessary to investigate the significance of these climate factors concerning other influences.[1] Furthermore, to understand the significance of climatic factors in the withdrawal of Mongol troops from Hungary in 1242, it is necessary to investigate the impact of climate and terrain on other actions and campaigns by these forces.

            BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo argue that the withdrawal of mongrel forces from Eastern Europe and, in particular, Hungary in 1242 CE occurred due to a combination of famine, climate change and reduced mobility.[2] The authors use the withdrawal of mongrel forces to support the “environmental hypothesis” that argues how minor climatic fluctuations have major impacts on historical events. However, this paper demonstrates how a choice of climate sources leads to widely disparate outcomes that cannot be relied on against the level of accuracy posited. Further, the authors fail to consider the means of warfare and strategies used by the Mongols.

            In seeking to promote an argument based on the environment, these climate research scientists have overlooked the historical evidence concerning how mongrel forces engaged in warfare. It is suggested that ice and marshes would have led to the Mongols being unable to cope with the terrain leading to a scenario where the armies had to withdraw.[3] Pinke et al. dispute the climate evidence and counter that the conditions, if they existed, would have aided the Mongol expansion.[4] While BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo reply to the contentions of Pinke et al. discusses conditions where the Mongol forces would have settled in Hungary rather than returning in 1250.[5]

            The strategy of the Mongol army was not to remain stationary in one area. The documentation of Mongol advance demonstrates how the Mongolian army subdued a region and then would leave. On leaving, if the city did not prove to be loyal, the Mongols would return and raise the city to the ground. This was common practice, and the assertion that the Mongol army would have stayed does not follow the standard pattern used by this group in other conquests.

            Similarly, the Mongol forces were premised on collecting and distributing wealth. In this methodology, the Mongol forces would seek booty to distribute and reward troops and loyal followers. Rather, wealthier areas, including the Rus and Baghdad, would have been far more attractive targets. Studies of wealth in mediaeval Hungary demonstrate some mineral wealth but predominantly a land-based economy.[6] Such an environment was one that the Mongolian military corps would see as repugnant. In this, it had been said that the European peasants were like animals in the eyes of the Mongol warrior.[7]

            Finally, comparing the economy and environment within both Hungary[8] and the territories of the Rus[9] demonstrates a desire to gain wealth over distrust of the climate. The “Golden Horde” took vast amounts of wealth from Russian territories.[10] As such, it is unlikely that it was the marshes or the change that led to the Mongol withdrawal. Further, while the army stopped in Hungary, it is more likely that the forest and mountain environments that started at the edges of Hungary extending into Germany posed more difficulty to the Mongol army.

The Effects of Climate on Europe around 1240 – 1242

Maiorov argues that there is insufficient evidence to date “SĂŒbedei’s attack on Kiev and the war with the Hungarians”, as Igor de Rachewiltz claims, “must have taken place in 1240–1242”.[11] In failing to demonstrate the correct date, the asserted causes of the mongrel retreat and the attributions to climate must also be put in doubt. While claims of mediaeval weather changes are argued, it can be demonstrated that the climate at the beginning of the 1240s was relatively stable. In analysing such climate evidence, the claims to why the Mongols left Hungary and those that say that these are because of climate may be put into doubt.

            In a Masters thesis documenting the diet of mediaeval Hungarians excavated from a find of 100 skeletons that had died during the 1240s, Gugora measured the diet and nitrogen balance of the remains.[12] The reported nitrogen levels and tooth enamel analysis did not provide evidence of famine or crop failure, as BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo posited. However, later problems resulting from the eruption of a volcano in 1257 have been demonstrated to lead to food shortages in 1258.[13] This event is too late to have obstructed the invasion of Hungary.

            Additionally, other climate models[14] provide different temperature patterns from those relied on by BĂŒntgen and Cosmo.[15] Model benchmarks created during this period show no significant changes to the weather between 1237 – 1245. Instead, as Klimenko and Solomina[16] demonstrate, “[t]he decades of the 1230s and 1240s were mild, and no extreme weather events were recorded”. The Eastern European temperature is recorded as stable until the beginning of the 1300s.[17]

            Butler et al. use the lifespan of shells and other novel measurements to determine whether patterns during an extended period.[18] However, the evidence provided does not support the hypothesis of the weather patterns that some authors have calculated in the early 1240s. Further, Iceland is known to sit on a conjunction of the polar front end Irminger current.[19] The measurement of climate patterns in this area is linked to significant changes in North America and Europe. However, the recorded weather patterns in this region and the I shelf data do not support significant climatic changes having occurred just after 1240.[20]

            Pow discusses the conclusions made “by Andrea Kiss 
 during major and long-lasting climatic changes and many years of extreme weather,” where it is argued that “famine occurred but very rarely in the whole country”.[21] However, the extrapolation of famine during a time of invasion and siege into weather problems is unwarranted. More likely, as Karbic et al. demonstrate, the peasants would have had to abandon their field crops over consecutive growing seasons during an invasion.[22] Therefore, such a cause of famine does not require any resort to weather patterns.

            Further, Rady et al. demonstrate that the Hungarian peasants were required to give food over to the invading forces during this time.[23] The combination of food being taken to feed an invading army and the migration away from the land during the invasion together provides enough impetus to discredit climate change claims through climatological determinism. The weather may be a factor, but this would require a larger study into weather effects on the invading Mongol forces in various terrains.

The Impact of Weather and Terrain on Mongol Armies

The Mongol army routinely fought in cold conditions. Nath investigated the Mongol conquest of northern India.[24] The environment in northern India ranges from hot to freezing with periodic downpours and monsoon. During the 1240s, the environment in India fluctuated far more than in Hungary, with incessant downpours, dry periods, and the creation of flooded marshlands.[25] While the Hungarian planes experienced the mediaeval warm period and favourable climate, India experienced periods leading to the loss of agricultural land.[26]

            Northern India experienced fluctuations in weather with extremes of both heat and cold during the Mongol invasion.[27] Smith analysed a wide set of scholarship concerning the formation and structure of the Mongol army.[28] The Hungarian plains offer an environment favourable to the Mongol cavalry. The economic analysis shows a growing need to capture and transport goods around the growing Mongol Empire to support the primary political units.

            Following the withdrawal from Hungary in 1242, Mongolian forces invaded Anatolia leading to the conquest in 1243.[29] The creation of the Saldjuq monuments during the thirteenth century in Anatolia demonstrates the wealth of this region.[30] While the weather in this region was warmer than in Hungary in winter, the ability to analyse and report on this region also demonstrates the difficulties faced in researching ancient climates and applying historical outcomes to them.[31]

            The weather and temperature in Anatolia were also known to fluctuate between extreme heat and freezing cold.[32] Mongol armies are known to have used bone devices to cross frozen rivers.[33] In Russia, the Mongol army used frozen rivers as roads using these techniques.[34] The Mongol conquest of the Russian territories led to Rus vassal soldiers being used in both the western provinces of Hungary and the far eastern Chinese borders.[35] From this, it becomes possible to understand that using foreign soldiers to protect their people allowed the Mongol army to develop new techniques and strategies that would be easily deployed within the Hungarian plains.

            Consequently, the deployment of Mongolian troops would be interspersed and integrated with those from other vassal territories.[36] The Mongol army widely exploited weather. In crossing frozen rivers and deserts that were thought to be untraversable and engaging at unexpected times[37], the Mongol army may be seen to use and exploit changing and unexpected weather and climate. Consequently, it becomes difficult to propose that climate would have then stopped them from advancing.[38]

            Further, Gumilev, in Otkrytie Khazarii,[39] provided arguments that the increased precipitation provided better pastureland. The Mongol herds would have fed even though the Hungarian peasants were starving. The work of Szyszman would uphold such an opinion.[40] In analysing the Hungarian weather changes, the increased precipitation would not be adequate to create a scenario where the Mongol horseman could not continue.

Mongolian Invasions during Wet Periods in Eastern China as a Comparison.

            Zhang et al.[41] researched the climatic effects on warfare across eastern China. The measurement of the number of wars and the effects of temperature and rainfall correlated inversely with invasions. The improving levels of precipitation and temperature resulted in lower stress levels in nomadic tribes. This work aligns with the findings of Li et al.[42] and more ancient migratory events when compared against the mediaeval warm period.

            While Fan[43] demonstrates a significant correlation and relationship between climate change and dynastic conquest, the underlying cause is one of political discontent and strongly correlates with worsening conditions. This state contrasts with that of Hungary. The climatic conditions in Hungary during the 1240s improved. The famine maybe then demonstrated not to result from climatic change but from the widespread destruction of arable land and the practice by the Mongols of turning tilled fields into pasture land.[44]

            The destruction of cultivated land in the conversion into pastureland that occurred during the Mongol invasion in the 1240s differed significantly from the impact on the land in China around a similar timeframe.[45] The widespread incursions of Mongol raiders trampled the land and led to arable land and fields under tillage being converted and returned into a less arable pasture that could support fewer peasants.[46] Subotai utilised these methods during the European campaign.[47]

            Subotai had used similar methods in the Chinese campaigns (1211-1215), but due to the differences in available wealth, the Mongols stayed in China, whereas they left Hungary.[48] The distinction is also clear when Hungary and the Russian lands are compared. As Lincoln demonstrated, the Mongol armies were willing to endure terrible climatic conditions if the raiding Mongol army could bring back significant amounts of plunder.[49]

            Further, in the immediate aftermath of 1245, Allsen[50] demonstrated that the difficulty in understanding the Mongol impact on only one area is often derived from taking a region in isolation rather than understanding the Empire as a system. For example, the Secret History of the Mongols[51] documents Ögödei’s reign (1229-1241) but records nothing of the Rus’ or Hungarian provinces until 1245. Consequently, the lack of records concerning captured wealth or tribute demonstrates more of the lack of wealth rather than problems with maintaining the territory in Hungary. As Allsen notes[52], a Mongol campaign required “ready access to huge quantities of men, money, and material from the sedentary sector of the Empire”. As a result, some places were not considered worth occupying.

Fortified Towns and Castles

            Simon[53] argues that “Hungary’s feudal private fortresses were [once] believed to have been built after the Tatar invasion”, but the problem is far more complex. Moreover, Maiorov analyses the Hypatian Chronicle and other works demonstrating how “the use of powerful stone-throwing machines in the siege of Chernigov”[54] provides evidence of the Mongol deployment of heavy siege weapons. Consequently, Chinese engineering and machinery allowed the Mongol army to attack fortified towns. However, a more common practice would be to entice the competing army into attacking the Mongol forces, who would retreat, allowing the enemy to become tired.

            This strategy proved particularly effective against the Hungarian forces on heavy amounts with soldiers wearing heavy armour. The lighter Mongol cavalry would stay ahead of the heavily armoured knights who did not have access to replacement steeds. The Mongol army could string out the attacking forces and pick them off. Even when these existed, such a strategy did not require attacking fortified towns and castles. However, the Mongol forces would have access to heavy siege engines from Chinese engineering that exceeded their Western counterparts when they did.

            The Hungarian climate would pose little difficulty for such machines. Turnbull argues that the terrain and climate of the South of China were sufficiently difficult enough to slow the Mongol armies.[55] However, such climatic conditions are significantly different from those in Hungary. Additionally, DeVries et al. demonstrate multiple instances where heavy siege engines could be used during rain.[56] In isolating the people in fortresses and changing the nature of the land from cultivated farmland to pasture, the Hungarian plains would be more and not less accessible and tolerable to the Mongols during this period.[57]

Infighting

The analysis of the climate and the forms of warfare lead away from the argument that climatic changes in conditions led to the sudden evacuation of Hungary by the Mongol forces. Rather, the events of the spring of 1242 provide a more comprehensive explanation as to why the Mongolian forces pulled out of Hungary. The sudden death of Ögedei Khan at the age of 56 following a night of binge drinking after returning from a hunting trip[58] led to political uncertainty between the ruling Mongol families.

            The political infighting and posturing between different branches of the family are well documented.[59] Existing problems had already started fraying the edges of the various forces. This Ögedei’s son GĂŒyĂŒk and Chagatai’s grandson BĂŒri together derided Batu in public. This dissension led to problems within the Mongol forces. Before this, Ögedei was granted permission to continue across Europe until the Atlantic Ocean. However, upon his death, the advance stopped, and in 1242 the various family members returned to Mongolia to elect a successor.

            The posturing led to delays, and the elections for a new Grand Khan did not occur until 1246. Pow additionally argues that the deep ditches and well-built walls provided a significant deterrent when coupled with the lack of resources discussed earlier.[60] Together, these events show little correlation with climate change in the region. Rather, the necessity for Mongol forces to return to Mongolia to engage in secession planning and voting would require a large-scale withdrawal.[61] The alternative would be to leave a highly diverse set of military divisions, including ones from vassal states, in perilous territory without leadership.[62]

Conclusion

Climate has been promoted as a cause of the sudden withdrawal of Mongol forces from Hungary in 1242.[63] However, as has been demonstrated, the level of climatic change experienced in Hungary can be shown to be far less than other climatic changes during the invasion of the Rus and Anatolian lands by leaders such as Ögedei Khagan. Further, the primary goals of the Mongolian army were to increase the amount of tribute and thirty captured and brought back to Mongolia.

            Economic limits on the capabilities of any army require choices. For example, the extension of the army into Hungary limited the ability of the Mongolians to attack either Anatolia or Russia. Both of these areas were far richer and returned larger quantities of goods and people to the Mongolian government at the heart of the Empire. Moreover, while Ögedei Khagan had ambitions of extending to the Atlantic, differences in secession plans and infighting caused more problems than climate. Consequently, there remains insufficient evidence that the European climate played a significant role in the withdrawal of Mongol troops from Hungary in 1242.

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[Image source: 1236-1242 Mongol invasions of Europe, Qiushufang, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, Wikimedia Commons]


[1] Ulf BĂŒntgen and Nicola Di Cosmo, ‘Climatic and Environmental Aspects of the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary in 1242 CE’, Scientific Reports 6, no. 1 (September 2016): 25606, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep25606.

[2] BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo, 1.

[3] BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo, 3.

[4] Zsolt Pinke et al., ‘Climate of Doubt: A Re-Evaluation of BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo’s Environmental Hypothesis for the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary, 1242 CE’, Scientific Reports 7, no. 1 (5 October 2017): 3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12128-6.

[5] Ulf BĂŒntgen and Nicola Di Cosmo, ‘Reply to “Climate of Doubt: A Re-Evaluation of BĂŒntgen and Di Cosmo’s Environmental Hypothesis for the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary, 1242 CE”’, Scientific Reports 7, no. 1 (5 October 2017): 12696, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12126-8.

[6] GĂ©za Hegyi, ZoltĂĄn NĂ©da, and Maria Augusta Santos, ‘Wealth Distribution and Pareto’s Law in the Hungarian Medieval Society’, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 380 (July 2007): 271–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2007.02.094.

[7] Jack Weatherford, Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World (Crown, 2005), 87,92.

[8] JĂłzsef Laszlovszky et al., The Economy of Medieval Hungary (Brill, 2018).

[9] Janet Martin, Treasure of the Land of Darkness: The Fur Trade and Its Significance for Medieval Russia (Cambridge University Press, 2004).

[10] Charles J. Halperin, Russia and the Golden Horde: The Mongol Impact on Medieval Russian History (Indiana University Press, 1987).

[11] Alexander V. Maiorov, ‘The Mongol Invasion of Eastern Europe in 1223, 1237-1240’, in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Asian History, by Alexander V. Maiorov (Oxford University Press, 2020), 3, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190277727.013.468.

[12] Ariana Gugora, ‘Childhood Diet and Mobility at Medieval (1240s AD) Solt-Tetelhegy, Hungary as Reconstructed from Stable Carbon, Nitrogen, and Oxygen Isotope Analysis’, Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 1 January 2015, https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/1132.

[13] Bruce M. S. Campbell, ‘GLOBAL CLIMATES, THE 1257 MEGA-ERUPTION OF SAMALAS VOLCANO, INDONESIA, AND THE ENGLISH FOOD CRISIS OF 1258*’, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society 27 (December 2017): 87–121, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0080440117000056.

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